[Python]캐글 자전거 수요 예측

bike-sharing-demand

Bike Sharing Demand Kaggle

1. 모듈 import

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib as mpl
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
import datetime
import os
from scipy import stats

%matplotlib inline

mpl.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False

2. 데이터 로드

train = pd.read_csv("train.csv", parse_dates=["datetime"])
test = pd.read_csv("test.csv", parse_dates=["datetime"])

train.shape, test.shape

((10886, 12), (6493, 9))

train.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 10886 entries, 0 to 10885
Data columns (total 12 columns):
 #   Column      Non-Null Count  Dtype
---  ------      --------------  -----
 0   datetime    10886 non-null  datetime64[ns]
 1   season      10886 non-null  int64
 2   holiday     10886 non-null  int64
 3   workingday  10886 non-null  int64
 4   weather     10886 non-null  int64
 5   temp        10886 non-null  float64
 6   atemp       10886 non-null  float64
 7   humidity    10886 non-null  int64
 8   windspeed   10886 non-null  float64
 9   casual      10886 non-null  int64
 10  registered  10886 non-null  int64
 11  count       10886 non-null  int64
dtypes: datetime64[ns](1), float64(3), int64(8)
memory usage: 1020.7 KB

test.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 6493 entries, 0 to 6492
Data columns (total 9 columns):
 #   Column      Non-Null Count  Dtype
---  ------      --------------  -----
 0   datetime    6493 non-null   datetime64[ns]
 1   season      6493 non-null   int64
 2   holiday     6493 non-null   int64
 3   workingday  6493 non-null   int64
 4   weather     6493 non-null   int64
 5   temp        6493 non-null   float64
 6   atemp       6493 non-null   float64
 7   humidity    6493 non-null   int64
 8   windspeed   6493 non-null   float64
dtypes: datetime64[ns](1), float64(3), int64(5)
memory usage: 456.7 KB

train.isnull().sum()

datetime      0
season        0
holiday       0
workingday    0
weather       0
temp          0
atemp         0
humidity      0
windspeed     0
casual        0
registered    0
count         0
dtype: int64

test.isnull().sum()

datetime      0
season        0
holiday       0
workingday    0
weather       0
temp          0
atemp         0
humidity      0
windspeed     0
dtype: int64

#year, month, day, dayofweek(0~6), quarter, hour, minute, second 컬럼 생성
train['year'] = train['datetime'].dt.year
train['month'] = train['datetime'].dt.month
train['day'] = train['datetime'].dt.day
train['dayofweek'] = train['datetime'].dt.dayofweek
train['quarter'] = train['datetime'].dt.quarter
train['hour'] = train['datetime'].dt.hour
train['minute'] = train['datetime'].dt.minute
train['second'] = train['datetime'].dt.second
train.shape

(10886, 20)

test['year'] = test['datetime'].dt.year
test['month'] = test['datetime'].dt.month
test['day'] = test['datetime'].dt.day
test['dayofweek'] = test['datetime'].dt.dayofweek
test['quarter'] = test['datetime'].dt.quarter
test['hour'] = test['datetime'].dt.hour
test['minute'] = test['datetime'].dt.minute
test['second'] = test['datetime'].dt.second
test.shape

(6493, 17)

train.head()

	datetime	season	holiday	workingday	weather	temp	atemp	humidity	windspeed	casual	registered	count	year	month	day	dayofweek	quarter	hour	minute	second
0	2011-01-01 00:00:00	1	0	0	1	9.84	14.395	81	0.0	3	13	16	2011	1	1	5	1	0	0	0
1	2011-01-01 01:00:00	1	0	0	1	9.02	13.635	80	0.0	8	32	40	2011	1	1	5	1	1	0	0
2	2011-01-01 02:00:00	1	0	0	1	9.02	13.635	80	0.0	5	27	32	2011	1	1	5	1	2	0	0
3	2011-01-01 03:00:00	1	0	0	1	9.84	14.395	75	0.0	3	10	13	2011	1	1	5	1	3	0	0
4	2011-01-01 04:00:00	1	0	0	1	9.84	14.395	75	0.0	0	1	1	2011	1	1	5	1	4	0	0

test.head()

	datetime	season	holiday	workingday	weather	temp	atemp	humidity	windspeed	year	month	day	dayofweek	quarter	hour	minute	second
0	2011-01-20 00:00:00	1	0	1	1	10.66	11.365	56	26.0027	2011	1	20	3	1	0	0	0
1	2011-01-20 01:00:00	1	0	1	1	10.66	13.635	56	0.0000	2011	1	20	3	1	1	0	0
2	2011-01-20 02:00:00	1	0	1	1	10.66	13.635	56	0.0000	2011	1	20	3	1	2	0	0
3	2011-01-20 03:00:00	1	0	1	1	10.66	12.880	56	11.0014	2011	1	20	3	1	3	0	0
4	2011-01-20 04:00:00	1	0	1	1	10.66	12.880	56	11.0014	2011	1	20	3	1	4	0	0

3. EDA

fig, ((ax1, ax2, ax3), (ax4, ax5, ax6)) = plt.subplots(2, 3)
fig.set_size_inches(18, 8)

sns.barplot(data = train, x = 'year', y='count', ax=ax1)
sns.barplot(data = train, x = 'month', y='count', ax=ax2)
sns.barplot(data = train, x = 'day', y='count', ax=ax3)
sns.barplot(data = train, x = 'hour', y='count', ax=ax4)
sns.barplot(data = train, x = 'minute', y='count', ax=ax5)
sns.barplot(data = train, x = 'second', y='count', ax=ax6)

ax1.set(ylabel='Count')
ax2.set(ylabel='month')
ax3.set(ylabel='day')
ax4.set(ylabel='hour')

[Text(0, 0.5, 'hour')]

minute와 second는 값이 0밖에 없으므로 해당 Feature는 사용하지 않는다.

fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 2)
fig.set_size_inches(12, 10)

sns.boxplot(data = train, y='count', orient="v", ax=axes[0][0])
sns.boxplot(data = train, y='count', x = "season", orient="v", ax=axes[0][1])
sns.boxplot(data = train, y='count', x = "hour", orient="v", ax=axes[1][0])
sns.boxplot(data = train, y='count', x = "workingday", orient="v", ax=axes[1][1])


axes[0][0].set(ylabel='Count')
axes[0][1].set(xlabel = "Season", ylabel='month')
axes[1][0].set(xlabel = "Hour of the Day", ylabel='day')
axes[1][1].set(xlabel = "Woking Day", ylabel='hour')

[Text(0.5, 0, 'Woking Day'), Text(0, 0.5, 'hour')]

hour의 너무 많은 값이 이상치로 나온다. hour를 여러 조건으로 나누어 살펴보자.

fig, ((ax1, ax2, ax3, ax4, ax5)) = plt.subplots(5)
fig.set_size_inches(18, 25)

sns.pointplot(data = train, x = 'hour', y='count', ax=ax1)
sns.pointplot(data = train, x = 'hour', y='count', hue="workingday", ax=ax2)
sns.pointplot(data = train, x = 'hour', y='count', hue="dayofweek", ax=ax3)
sns.pointplot(data = train, x = 'hour', y='count', hue="weather", ax=ax4)
sns.pointplot(data = train, x = 'hour', y='count', hue="season", ax=ax5)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='hour', ylabel='count'>

주중과 주말, 요일별로 hour당 수요량이 다르다.

train[['temp', 'atemp', 'weather', 'count', 'casual', 'registered']].corr()

	temp	atemp	weather	count	casual	registered
temp	1.000000	0.984948	-0.055035	0.394454	0.467097	0.318571
atemp	0.984948	1.000000	-0.055376	0.389784	0.462067	0.314635
weather	-0.055035	-0.055376	1.000000	-0.128655	-0.135918	-0.109340
count	0.394454	0.389784	-0.128655	1.000000	0.690414	0.970948
casual	0.467097	0.462067	-0.135918	0.690414	1.000000	0.497250
registered	0.318571	0.314635	-0.109340	0.970948	0.497250	1.000000

plt.figure(figsize=(12,10))
sns.heatmap(abs(train.corr()), annot=True, cmap='RdPu')
plt.show()

def concatenate_year_month(datetime) :
    return "{0}-{1}".format(datetime.year, datetime.month)

train["year_month"] = train["datetime"].apply(concatenate_year_month)

print(train.shape)
train[["datetime", "year_month"]].head()

(10886, 21)

	datetime	year_month
0	2011-01-01 00:00:00	2011-1
1	2011-01-01 01:00:00	2011-1
2	2011-01-01 02:00:00	2011-1
3	2011-01-01 03:00:00	2011-1
4	2011-01-01 04:00:00	2011-1

fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(1, 2)
fig.set_size_inches(18, 4)

sns.barplot(data=train, x="year", y="count", ax=ax1)
sns.barplot(data=train, x="month", y="count", ax=ax2)

fig, ax3 = plt.subplots(1, 1)
fig.set_size_inches(18, 4)

sns.barplot(data=train, x="year_month", y="count", ax=ax3)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='year_month', ylabel='count'>

#이상치 제거
trainWithoutOutliers = train[np.abs(train["count"] - train["count"].mean()) <= (3*train["count"].mean())]

print(train.shape)
print(trainWithoutOutliers.shape)

(10886, 21)
(10768, 21)

fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 2)
fig.set_size_inches(12, 10)

sns.distplot(train["count"], ax=axes[0][0])
stats.probplot(train["count"], dist='norm', fit=True, plot=axes[0][1])

sns.distplot(np.log(trainWithoutOutliers["count"]), ax=axes[1][0])
stats.probplot(np.log(trainWithoutOutliers["count"]), dist='norm', fit=True, plot=axes[1][1])

C:\Users\yun70\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2557: FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-level function with similar flexibility) or `histplot` (an axes-level function for histograms).
  warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
C:\Users\yun70\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2557: FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-level function with similar flexibility) or `histplot` (an axes-level function for histograms).
  warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)





((array([-3.82886059, -3.6047202 , -3.48171232, ...,  3.48171232,
          3.6047202 ,  3.82886059]),
  array([0.        , 0.        , 0.        , ..., 6.63463336, 6.64118217,
         6.64118217])),
 (1.4123284761790171, 4.528748279449013, 0.9542628138734534))

4. 예측 준비

풍속 0값 예측

# widspeed 풍속에 0 값이 가장 많음 -> 잘못 기록된 데이터를 고쳐 줄 필요가 있음
fig, axes = plt.subplots(2)
fig.set_size_inches(18, 10)

plt.sca(axes[0])
plt.xticks(rotation=30, ha='right')
axes[0].set(ylabel='Count', title="train windspeed")
sns.countplot(data=train, x="windspeed", ax=axes[0])

plt.sca(axes[1])
plt.xticks(rotation=30, ha='right')
axes[1].set(ylabel='Count', title="test windspeed")
sns.countplot(data=test, x="windspeed", ax=axes[1])

<AxesSubplot:title={'center':'test windspeed'}, xlabel='windspeed', ylabel='count'>

trainWind0 = train.loc[train['windspeed']==0]
trainWindNot0 = train.loc[train['windspeed']!=0]
print(trainWind0.shape)
print(trainWindNot0.shape)

(1313, 21)
(9573, 21)

# 랜덤포레스트로 예측해서 풍속 넣기
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier

def predict_windspeed(data) :

    dataWind0 = data.loc[data['windspeed'] == 0]
    dataWindNot0 = data.loc[data['windspeed'] != 0]

    wCol = ["season", "weather", "humidity", "month", "temp", "year", "atemp"]

    dataWindNot0["windspeed"] = dataWindNot0["windspeed"].astype("str")

    rfModel_wind = RandomForestClassifier()
    rfModel_wind.fit(dataWindNot0[wCol], dataWindNot0["windspeed"])
    wind0Values = rfModel_wind.predict(X = dataWind0[wCol])

    predictWind0 = dataWind0
    predictWindNot0 = dataWindNot0
    predictWind0["windspeed"] = wind0Values
    data = predictWindNot0.append(predictWind0)

    data["windspeed"] = data["windspeed"].astype("float")
    data.reset_index(inplace=True)
    data.drop('index', inplace=True, axis=1)

    return data

train = predict_windspeed(train)

fig, ax1 = plt.subplots()
fig.set_size_inches(18, 6)

plt.sca(ax1)
plt.xticks(rotation=30, ha='right')
ax1.set(ylabel='Count', title="train windspeed")
sns.countplot(data=train, x="windspeed", ax=ax1)

<AxesSubplot:title={'center':'train windspeed'}, xlabel='windspeed', ylabel='count'>

feature 정하기

categorical_feature_names = ["season", "holiday", "workingday", "weather", "dayofweek", "month", "year", "hour"]

for var in categorical_feature_names :
    train[var] = train[var]. astype("category")
    test[var] = test[var]. astype("category")

feature_names = ["season", "weather", "temp", "atemp", "humidity", "windspeed", "year", "hour", "dayofweek", "holiday", "workingday"]
feature_names

['season',
 'weather',
 'temp',
 'atemp',
 'humidity',
 'windspeed',
 'year',
 'hour',
 'dayofweek',
 'holiday',
 'workingday']

X_train = train[feature_names]

print(X_train.shape)
X_train.head()

(10886, 11)

	season	weather	temp	atemp	humidity	windspeed	year	hour	dayofweek	holiday	workingday
0	1	2	9.84	12.880	75	6.0032	2011	5	5	0	0
1	1	1	15.58	19.695	76	16.9979	2011	10	5	0	0
2	1	1	14.76	16.665	81	19.0012	2011	11	5	0	0
3	1	1	17.22	21.210	77	19.0012	2011	12	5	0	0
4	1	2	18.86	22.725	72	19.9995	2011	13	5	0	0

X_test = test[feature_names]

print(X_test.shape)
X_test.head()

(6493, 11)

	season	weather	temp	atemp	humidity	windspeed	year	hour	dayofweek	holiday	workingday
0	1	1	10.66	11.365	56	26.0027	2011	0	3	0	1
1	1	1	10.66	13.635	56	0.0000	2011	1	3	0	1
2	1	1	10.66	13.635	56	0.0000	2011	2	3	0	1
3	1	1	10.66	12.880	56	11.0014	2011	3	3	0	1
4	1	1	10.66	12.880	56	11.0014	2011	4	3	0	1

label_name = "count"

y_train = train[label_name]

print(y_train.shape)
y_train.head()

(10886,)





0     1
1    36
2    56
3    84
4    94
Name: count, dtype: int64

RMSLE

• 과소평가에 패널티 줌
• 오차 제곱 평균의 제곱근
• 0에 가까울수록 정밀도 높음

from sklearn.metrics import make_scorer

def rmsle(predicted_values, actual_values) :

    predicted_values = np.array(predicted_values)
    actual_values = np.array(actual_values)

    log_predict = np.log(predicted_values + 1)
    log_actual = np.log(actual_values + 1)

    difference = log_predict - log_actual
    difference = np.square(difference)

    mean_difference = difference.mean()

    score = np.sqrt(mean_difference)

    return score

rmsle_scorer = make_scorer(rmsle)
rmsle_scorer

make_scorer(rmsle)

KFold 교차검증

from sklearn.model_selection import KFold
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score

k_fold = KFold(n_splits=10, shuffle=True, random_state=0)

5. 예측 모델

Linear Regression Model

from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression, Ridge, Lasso
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV
from sklearn import metrics
import warnings
pd.options.mode.chained_assignment = None
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=DeprecationWarning)

# 선형회귀 모델을 초기화
lModel = LinearRegression()

# 모델 학습
y_train_log = np.log1p(y_train)
lModel.fit(X_train, y_train_log)

# 예측, 정확도 평가
preds = lModel.predict(X_train)
print("RMSLE Value For Linear Regression: ", rmsle(np.exp(y_train_log), np.exp(preds)))

RMSLE Value For Linear Regression:  0.9798738624110362

Regularization Model - Ridge

• 가중치 모든 원소가 0에 가깝게 만들어 모든 Feature가 주는 영향을 최소화(기울기 작게 만듦)
• max_iter : 반복 실행하는 최대 횟수

ridge_m_ = Ridge()
ridge_params_ = {'max_iter' : [3000], 'alpha' : [0.01, 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 30, 100, 200, 300, 400, 800, 900, 1000]}
rmsle_scorer = metrics.make_scorer(rmsle, greater_is_better=False)
grid_ridge_m = GridSearchCV(ridge_m_, ridge_params_, scoring=rmsle_scorer, cv=5)

y_train_log = np.log1p(y_train)
grid_ridge_m.fit(X_train, y_train_log)
preds = grid_ridge_m.predict(X_train)
print(grid_ridge_m.best_params_)
print("RMSLE Value For Ridge Regression: ", rmsle(np.exp(y_train_log), np.exp(preds)))

fig,ax = plt.subplots()
fig.set_size_inches(12, 5)
df = pd.DataFrame(grid_ridge_m.cv_results_)
df["alpha"] = df["params"].apply(lambda x:x["alpha"])
df["rmsle"] = df["mean_test_score"].apply(lambda x:-x)

plt.xticks(rotation=30, ha='right')
sns.pointplot(data=df, x="alpha", y="rmsle", ax=ax)

{'alpha': 0.01, 'max_iter': 3000}
RMSLE Value For Ridge Regression:  0.9798738604013573





<AxesSubplot:xlabel='alpha', ylabel='rmsle'>

• 여기서 ‘GridSearchCV’ object has no attribute ‘gridscores’ 라는 오류가 떴다.
  구글에 쳐보니 sklearn의 이전 버전에는 ‘gridscores‘가 있고 새 버전은 ‘cvresults‘로 변경되었다고 한다.
  그래서 df = pd.DataFrame(gridridge_m.cv_results) 고치고 했다.

• 고쳤더니 컬럼값도 바껴있다..
  원하는 컬럼값을 찾아 바꿔주었다.
  df[“parameters”] -> df[“params”]
  df[“mean_validation_score”] -> df[“mean_test_score”]

Regularization Model - Lasso

• 계수를 0에 가깝게 만들려고 하며 이를 L1 규제라고 한다. 0인 계수는 완전히 제외하는 Feature가 생긴다는 의미
• Feature 선택이 자동으로 이루어짐
• alpha 값의 기본 값은 1.0이며, 과소 적합을 줄이기 위해서는 이 값을 줄여야한다.

lasso_m_ = Lasso()
alpha = 1/np.array([0.01, 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 30, 100, 200, 300, 400, 800, 900, 1000])
lasso_params_ = {'max_iter' : [3000], 'alpha' : alpha}

grid_lasso_m = GridSearchCV(lasso_m_, lasso_params_, scoring=rmsle_scorer, cv=5)
y_train_log = np.log1p(y_train)
grid_lasso_m.fit(X_train, y_train_log)
preds = grid_lasso_m.predict(X_train)
print(grid_lasso_m.best_params_)
print("RMSLE Value For Lasso Regression: ", rmsle(np.exp(y_train_log), np.exp(preds)))

fig,ax = plt.subplots()
fig.set_size_inches(12, 5)
df = pd.DataFrame(grid_ridge_m.cv_results_)
df["alpha"] = df["params"].apply(lambda x:x["alpha"])
df["rmsle"] = df["mean_test_score"].apply(lambda x:-x)

plt.xticks(rotation=30, ha='right')
sns.pointplot(data=df, x="alpha", y="rmsle", ax=ax)

{'alpha': 0.00125, 'max_iter': 3000}
RMSLE Value For Lasso Regression:  0.9798830685468796





<AxesSubplot:xlabel='alpha', ylabel='rmsle'>

Ensemble Model - RandomForest

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
rfModel = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators = 100)

y_train_log = np.log1p(y_train)
rfModel.fit(X_train, y_train_log)

preds = rfModel.predict(X_train)
score = rmsle(np.exp(y_train_log), np.exp(preds))
print("RMSLE Value For Random Forest: ", score)

RMSLE Value For Random Forest:  0.10687876851241544

Ensemble Model - Gradient Boost

• 이진 트리의 오차를 보완
• 무작위성X, 강력한 사전 가지치기

from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingRegressor
gbm = GradientBoostingRegressor(n_estimators = 4000, alpha=0.01)

y_train_log = np.log1p(y_train)
gbm.fit(X_train, y_train_log)

preds = gbm.predict(X_train)
print("RMSLE Value For Gradient Boost: ", rmsle(np.exp(y_train_log), np.exp(preds)))

RMSLE Value For Gradient Boost:  0.20502659343932583

predsTest = rfModel.predict(X_test)

fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(1, 2)
fig.set_size_inches(12, 5)

sns.distplot(y_train, ax=ax1, bins=50)
sns.distplot(np.exp(predsTest), ax=ax2, bins=50)

C:\Users\yun70\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2557: FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-level function with similar flexibility) or `histplot` (an axes-level function for histograms).
  warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
C:\Users\yun70\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2557: FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-level function with similar flexibility) or `histplot` (an axes-level function for histograms).
  warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)





<AxesSubplot:ylabel='Density'>

6. Submit

submission = pd.read_csv("sampleSubmission.csv")
submission

submission["count"] = np.exp(predsTest)

print(submission.shape)
submission.head()

(6493, 2)

	datetime	count
0	2011-01-20 0:00	12.422343
1	2011-01-20 1:00	5.785711
2	2011-01-20 2:00	4.143073
3	2011-01-20 3:00	4.055910
4	2011-01-20 4:00	3.508064

submission.to_csv("Score_{0:.5f}_submission.csv" .format(score), index=False)

※ Kaggle에 제출할 때 “RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators = 100)” 처럼 어떤 파라미터를 썼는지 작성하고 제출하면 더 좋다.